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The "perfect storm" of bullishness - or not

By now everyone knows that market indices took off like bottle rockets this morning. The Dow, for example:

The reason is that the most important central banks in the world, including the US Fed, agreed to charge each other less interest in dollar swap lines beginning this coming Monday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank as well as the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan and Switzerland agreed to lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines -- or reducing the cost of temporary dollar loans -- to banks by a half percentage point, starting December 5.

The central banks' actions was intended to ensure that starved European banks facing a credit crunch have enough funding as the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis worsens.

Also, China unexpectedly cut bank reserve requirements in hopes of boosting an economy running at its weakest pace since 2009.

Further encouraging investors, the latest economic data suggested the U.S. economy was moving more solidly toward recovery. The U.S. private sector added the most jobs in nearly a year in November, while business activity in the U.S. Midwest grew faster than expected in November surged.

Other data showed pending sales of existing U.S. homes surged in October by the most in nearly a year.

"There's a perfect storm of bullishness. PMI came out better than expected, plus what happened overseas, and ADP was well above consensus," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York, with about $3 billion in assets under management.

It's true that the lates jobs report looks good. Even so, I think the surge will retreat - the move announced today has already weakened the dollar, resulting in higher prices of futures for oil, gold and silver, which are always priced internationally in dollars.

Furthermore, the other side of investment makers don't see what the big deal is:

S&P Equity Futures are up another 3 Percent, Bond Market Yawns

Global equities are sharply higher with this global coordinated action. S&P 500 futures are up another 3 percent and will gap higher.

Meanwhile Spanish 10-year bonds rallied (yields fell) a mere 7 basis points to 6.32%, Spanish 2-year bonds rallied a mere 8 basis points to 5.51%, Italian 10-year bonds rallied 10 basis points to 7.13%, and Italian 10-year bonds rallied 9 basis points to 7.00%.

Whatever the equity markets see, the bond market doesn't. A flight to safety of German bonds is back on, that China needs to cut reserve requirements is a huge sign of weakness (and no it will not stop a hard Chinese landing).

Also bear in mind that on September 15, there was coordinated swap-line action that did nothing.

Here is what happened to the ESI index after the September swap-line action:

The fact is that none of the underlying, weak fundamentals about the Eurozone's or America's economy have changed. The euro is as weak as ever and the dollar is weakening even more. Nothing about the PIIGS' situation is improved. So essentially, today's central banks' action place yet another temporary bandage on a suppurating wound. The markets are reacting to the news that something has been done, but by the beginning of next week, I think that the sane heads on Wall Street will understand that this something isn't amounting to much because basically, nothing has changed.

That's also the assessment of PIMCO's CEO, Mohamed El-Erian, who says that the indices moved so dramatically today because, "Risk markets love liquidity injections, real and perceived." Also,

First, these monetary institutions feel that, again, they have to move because other entities have continued to be too slow and too ineffective; and second, they feel that they cannot, and should not ignore an actual or anticipated need to relieve acute pressures within the banking system.

These two reasons were made even more pressing by last week’s dislocations in the functioning of European financial markets – most notably, the inversion of the Italian yield curve, pressure on government bond markets in core Europe, the growing fragility of the banking system, a drop in market liquidity, and growing hesitation by market participants to warehouse any risk.

The immediate impact on markets unambiguously favors risk assets across the world. The longer-term effect depends on the scale and scope of the follow through from others. This is particularly important as we count down to yet another European Summit on December 9.

The hope is that central banks are acting because, looking forward, they feel confident that other policymakers will finally catch up with a big and spreading debt crisis that has serious implications for growth, jobs and inequality. The fear is that they are acting because they feel that they must again pre-empt yet another set of potential disappointments.

The AP reports that all that happened today is that Europe has delayed "major debt decisions for 10 days." Will policymakers finally catch up to the markets and bankers? To think that is the triumph of hope over experience.

So: Near term: Party! Long term: Head for the hills!

Update, 1:45 p.m.: I predict that there will be a distinct pullback in the Dow by the time the NYSE closes at 4 p.m. today. At Close: Well, I called that the wrong way. The Dow actually closed at 12,029.56, up just under 474 points for the day. Things to look for: Yields on 10-year Italian bonds and the US Dollar Index. If the former drops about a point and the latter rises another three points or so, then the strong market indices will have a longer shelf life because together they will indicate that some sort of real response to the Eurozone's long-term issues has been adopted. But that is pretty problematical.

"It's hard to make things foolproof ...

... because fools are so ingenious."

Except that the managers of McDonald's, Inc. are not fools.

San Francisco's jackboot government has made it illegal, starting tomorrow, for Mickey D's or anyone else to sell a meal that includes a toy unless the meal complies with the city's draconian nutritional standards. That the city's school systems' meals do not meet those standards is ironic and typical of this kind of socialist authoritarianism, but that's another story, I guess.

The ordinance is directed squarely and specifically at McDonald's Happy Meals. The city's objective is to ban Happy Meals altogether because, you see, Happy Meals and nothing else are making S.F. kids obese.

So McDonald's will tomorrow stop selling Happy Meals there - at least, they will stop selling any kind of meal that includes a toy. You will still be able to buy the exact, same menu items in the exact, same Happy Meal box, at the same price. But it will not include a toy.

A toy will set you back another 10 cents, rung as a separate transaction. And if you want to buy a toy at all, you must buy the toyless Happy Meal to do so.

No, Mcdonald's' managers are not fools. But the dictati of San Francisco are.

Here's the link: Happy Meal Ban: McDonald's Outsmarts San Francisco

 

Employment good news

The National Employment Report says that seasonally-adjusted, non-farm payrolls increased by more than 200,000 from October to November. That figure includes the largest gain in construction jobs in five years. Link.

Brits: Prepare for riots in euro collapse

Prepare for riots in euro collapse, Foreign Office warns - Telegraph

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain. ...

If eurozone governments defaulted on their debts, the European banks that hold many of their bonds would risk collapse.

Some analysts say the shock waves of such an event would risk the collapse of the entire financial system, leaving banks unable to return money to retail depositors and destroying companies dependent on bank credit. ...

Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment.

Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extreme consequences of a break-up include risks to basic property rights and the threat of civil disorder.

“When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences,” UBS said.

Markets move faster than politicians

Which is one big reason why the Euro crisis is not getting solved.

“Financial markets continue to move faster than politicians,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of foreign exchange strategy for UBS, said. “Fixed income investors are betting that either Germany moves towards a fiscal union with its eurozone partners or that, without the ECB willing to buy unlimited amounts of sovereign bonds in the secondary markets, the eurozone will break apart.”

This gentleman also says that the end of the Euro as the single, unified European currency has already been priced into the markets. But I would add that the markets have not priced it in all the way.

However,

The EU process continues and the politicians clearly feel they have ample time on their hands.

EU monetary history is full of delays and Germany giving in to pressure. Merkel’s position is under pressure and the Bund Yield has become our barometer for pro-EU solutions – for now the trend is clear – we are on-route to Germany giving up and soon.

Europe: Apocalypse now?

Germany told to act to save Europe - FT.com:

Germany is the only country in Europe that can act to save the eurozone and the wider European Union from “a crisis of apocalyptic proportions”, the Polish foreign minister warned on Monday in a passionate call for more drastic action to prevent the collapse of the European monetary union.

The extraordinary appeal by Radoslaw Sikorski, delivered in the shadow of the Brandenburg Gate in the German capital, came as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development called on European leaders to provide “credible and large enough firepower” to halt the sell-off in the eurozone sovereign debt market, or risk a severe recession.

The OECD’s comments came as the organisation slashed its half-yearly forecasts for growth in the world’s richest countries, warning that economic activity in Europe would grind to a near-halt.

If Europe does reach a financial apocalypse and economic activity there grinds to a near halt, the US will topple right behind. A third of the United States' trade is with Europe. Think we can take that kind of hit without crashing ourselves?

More: OECD: euro collapse would have 'highly devastating outcomes' worldwide

The collapse of the euro could send the world's advanced economies into a severe recession, dragging emerging markets with them into the mire, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development warned on Monday. ... Pier Carlo Padoan, OECD chief economist, made plain in the body's latest six-monthly economic outlook that the greatest threat to global economic health comes from the eurozone rather than from the tax-and-spend gridlock in the US Congress. ... His comments came amidst evidence that the 17 eurozone countries are even wider apart on the measures required to staunch the exit of global investors and prevent a credit crunch on an even worse scale than in 2008-09.

This is Europe. The moment of verticality is only
days away. 

There simply is no good news from anyone writing about the Eurozone and its future. The SS Europe is sinking and everyone knows it. But the national governments cannot agree on how to stop it. There is some consensus that Germany has to "save Europe," but the fact is that Germany alone cannot do it.

They say that when a ship sinks and you find yourself in the water, you have to get away from the sinking vessel because the water rushing into the ship will drag you along with it. But there is no economy in the world that can "get away" from Europe's impending and by now almost certain collapse. The recession we entered in 2008 will be like a walk in the park to what is coming. It will be a true depression. Ironically, in the short term America's markets will benefit from an inflow of investors' cash as they run away from the collapsing Euro markets. But that won't last.

How long until the sinking European ship turns vertical? Perhaps less than two weeks.

Falling off the financial cliff

John Williams says that when it comes to inflation, you ain't seen nothing yet.

Severely slashing social programs such as Social Security and Medicare would be the only way it could be avoided. I don’t have any problem per se with Social Security or Medicare, but you can’t bring things into balance without addressing them. If you look at the U.S. annual deficit on a GAAP basis—generally accepted accounting principles—with accounting for the year-to-year change and the net present value of unfunded liabilities in Social Security, Medicare and such, you’re seeing a federal deficit in excess of $5 trillion per year.

Putting that in perspective, if you wanted to raise taxes, you could take 100% of people’s salaries and the government would still be in deficit. You could cut every penny of government spending, except for Social Security and Medicare, and you’d still be in deficit.

You can’t escape the eventual hyperinflation if those programs are not addressed. Originally, I was looking for hyperinflation by the end of this decade. I’ve advanced it to 2014, and it may well come before that. I think we’re already in the early stages of going through what has to happen for this to break.

I report, you decide. But those problems will not be addressed quickly, and probably not even addressed at all. The United States is presently financially suicidal.

Consider Spain, for example, which is now falling off the financial cliff.

Spain’s economy is double the size of Greece’s, Ireland’s and Portugal’s COMBINED.

Spain’s total debts, including mortgages and commercial loans, are large enough to bankrupt all of Europe.

Even if the United States manages to escape a direct contagion attack for a while longer, the impact of Spain’s demise ALONE will explode on global financial markets with a mega-tonnage that’s many times larger than anything we’ve seen so far from Greece.

Worst of all, Spain has simply run out of time. Its death spiral is under way; its plunge into default, virtually unavoidable.

Here are the horrifying facts …

Spain’s unemployment has skyrocketed to 22.6 percent; and among workers under 25, to an astronomical 48 percent!

At least one million people are at risk of losing their homes — the equivalent of nearly seven million people in the U.S.

Homelessness and begging are rampant; labor strikes and street protests, endemic.

And now, the final blow: Global bond investors are dumping Spanish bonds like a hot potato, driving Spain’s borrowing costs through the roof.

In fact, Spain is now having to pay three times as much on its three-month treasury bills than it paid only one month ago. Investment capital is fleeing Spain like proverbial rats and the sinking ship.

But it's not better here.

Almost everywhere in the world, especially in the United States and Europe, the pattern is clear:

First, the government spends everything it has.

Next, the government borrows all it can from its people.

Then, it borrows still more from foreign countries and banks.

Finally, the debts become so onerous that they bring on the contagion — the day of reckoning — we’re witnessing now.

Right now investor money is still coming into US markets because even though the game is crooked, it's the only game in town (or the world) that is still a safe haven. But it's only comparatively safe, and the comparison is like saying that a stage two lung cancer patient is healthy compared to a stage four patient.

I am not posting cheerful stuff here, I know. Jeepers, I sound like Jeremiah, but Jeremiah, for all his gloominess, turned out to be right.

Huge Explosion In Iran's Nuke City

Huge Explosion In IRAN's Nuke City:

Less than two weeks after a mysterious explosion destroyed an Iranian missile development base, and the same day the Israeli Military reported on the effect of that explosion, Iran's official news agency FARS reported that a loud blast was heard in the city of Isfahan at 2:40 pm local time (6:10am EST).

Iran operates a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, which has a major role in the nuclear weapons process. first went into operation in 2004, taking uranium from mines and producing uranium fluoride gas, which then feeds the centrifuges that enrich the uranium.

Since 2004 (thank you France) , thousands of tons of uranium flouride gas were stockpiled at Isfahan and subsequently sent to the enrichment plant in Natanz. Search and rescue teams called to the scene confirmed the blast, but as of yet no injuries have been reported.

Iran's uranium enrichment plant is located just outside the city of Isfahan – one of Iran's largest cities.

According to the FARS report, a security official confirmed that the explosion had occurred, but refused to give further details.

Which makes these two pieces all the more relevant:

Why the Israeli Air Force will bomb Iran this spring

Why the strikes are likely to succeed

Stage3D Game: 3D Blue Race

3D Blue Race (Stage3D,Molehill,Flash11)

You need Flash Player 11 to play Stage3D Games:

http://get.adobe.com/fr/flashplayer/

http://www.adobe.com/support/flashplayer/downloads.html

How to play:

Complete the race track the faster possible.

Left and Right Keys to Steer. Up and Down Keys to Accelerate. Space to Stop.

What to say to the grieving

Having corresponded with James Joyner over the years, it was a blow to visit his site early this morning to read that his wife, Kimberly, died suddenly last night from unknown causes. Presumably, the cause will be determined, but now James and his two small daughters are in shock.

Some dozens of readers have left comments of support on the post. They reminded me of a post of mine in July 2003 of what to say, or not, to the grieving. So here it is.

I have had a lot of experience with funerals and people in mourning, both as one whose kin have died and in ministering to the bereaved. Here is a short course in what to say to the next of kin of the deceased.

What not to say
Do not attempt to explain the death. Comments such as, "This is all part of God's plan," or "There is some purpose served here that we don't understand" are not helpful. Just skip them. Grieving parents, widows or widowers are not looking for cosmic wisdom or theology. No matter how helpful you think such things are, or how intensely you believe them, they do not help.

Do not minimize the impact of the death. Deaths of loved ones are consequential, and must be regarded as such. A woman I knew had to bury her three-day-old baby girl. A woman of her church told her, "At least it wasn't a boy." In the recent death of my elderly and long-term ill mother-in-law, several people said to my wife and me, "At least she isn't suffering anymore." These kinds of comments are cruel, not helpful.

Do not talk about the unfairness of life or make the deceased and the family a victim of circumstances. Comments such as, "I don't see why the doctors could not have done more," or "Your wife was such a good woman, I don't see why she had to die" or the like harm rather than help. The deaths of loved ones create chaos in the mental and emotional states of the families. Often, they wonder whether they could have done something more to save the deceased. Don't say anything that could reinforce these feelings.

What to say
Express sympathy and offer support. Be a friend. Be brief and sincere. Here is a template you can use either verbally or in writing a sympathy card:

I am saddened to hear of your loss. Please be assured that my prayers are with you. I know these days are difficult for you. You have many friends who will support you and who are eager to give you aid and comfort. We pray that you will be strengthened through God's grace, and come to find rest and peace. Sincerely, [name].

It is not inappropriate to offer, "If there is anything we can do, let us know," but not many next of kin will let you know. If you truly want to offer more than moral support, just do it. Offer to take their car to be washed before the funeral. Offer to do their laundry or house sit or visit to answer the phone. Be imaginative in discerning what routine tasks you can perform for the bereaved; those are the tasks that tend to be left undone. Never force yourself on the bereaved, of course, but usually a doer is gratefully welcomed while a mere promiser is forgotten.

If the death was tragic (that is, premature, suicidal or violent) then you should understand that support will be needed for many weeks, not just a few days. The level of support required will decrease, but do not expect that after only a week or so the bereavement will just end and the bereaved will get on with life. "Getting over it" is something that may never happen for the families of those who died tragically. Parents who lose children, for example, never get over it emotionally although after a time their routines may appear normal. But they always grieve, even after decades.

Anniversary dates can be particularly difficult. For those who lose spouses, the next Valentine's Day can be very difficult. A card or bouquet on that day will be very helpful. A phone call on wedding anniversaries or birthdays of the deceased will be much appreciated.

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DİSNEY TEMALI 1 YAŞ PASTASI

Who drives to Texas? Part 4

These are the pictures from yesterday:




Our second stop at Panera. The soup! The bread! The Mac and Cheese! The pastries! (note the soft cast/sling on our boy....ugh.)

Panera was in Joplin, Missouri, where a huge tornado hit. We asked a lady at panera where we could go to see the major damage and she said "go down to main street. It's decimated. That's where my house was." :(

It was crazy and a sobering experience for our family to see the destruction.

This is the next picture:



Lots of cousin love! We ended up in Tahlequah, Oklahoma at Ryan's sister's house. I LOVE hearing the sounds of cousins playing and laughing. We talked our faces off with Brooke and Spencer. Yay for hanging out with far-off family!

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Stage3D Game: 3D Maze Escape 2

Stage3D Game: 3D Maze Escape 2

You need Flash Player 11 to play Stage3D Games:

http://get.adobe.com/fr/flashplayer/

http://www.adobe.com/support/flashplayer/downloads.html

How to play:

Evacuate the castle maze.
Use Arrows or WSAD to move.

Who drives to Texas? Part 3

No driving yesterday! We stopped at my friend Carie's house and just had the best day...until we had to take Seth to the emergency room. But I'll get to that.

After a lovely run with Carie, we headed to Liberty Jail, a place with historical and spiritual significance for our church. It was neat to be there:





We stopped for lunch at Panera. (Don't have one in Spokane and holy cow! We stopped there AGAIN today for lunch.)

We headed to downtown Kansas City and went to Kaleidoscope (a Hallmark owned children's art museum). We had so much (free!) fun:

Gabe using their wall kaleidoscope maker:



Lots of art to make:




The adults dropped kids at home and left for dinner at Jack Stack (cuh-razy good barbecue) and the famous chocolate bag for dessert (picture on my regular camera--but that thing was a. A work of art and b. so so so yummy).

We got home to news that Seth had jumped off a ledge and hurt his arm. We weren't too concerned till we heard him whimpering at 12:30 in the morning. One middle-of-the-night ER run later, the radiologist confirmed it was a bad sprain. Phew. We tend towards broken arms around here and we were scared. Ryan reports MAJOR charming of the nurses on Seth's part:



He is now complaining, as we drive to Oklahoma, that is itches. I hope it itches so much he NEVER jumps from at 5 foot ledge again.

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WİNX CLUB BASKILI ŞATOLU PASTA

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Who drives to Texas? Part 2

Yesterday was Mount Rushmore day. It was sub-zero and snowy but brilliantly sunny. After a quick stop at a local church meeting, we headed up the mountain.



My family of groomed sight-see-ers were suitably impressed/excited and there was a neat feeling there.

We headed back to the car to drive to Kansas City, but made sure to detour at Wall Drug (because how can you pass 153 billboards and NOT check it out?):




Some of the photo ops:






If you know Seth, you know this kind of personal space invading is NOT just for wooden figures:


It was a long 11 more hours, but we made it to KC. Remind me to detail our extensive car trip activity preparation. Here they are in one of there more sedate moments:




The next 10 days only has a few 4-5 hour car rides, so we are looking forward to our driving break!


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