A viewer’s guide: What to watch for during Obama’s State of the Union speech

By JANE SASSEEN
Yahoo! News

President Barack Obama has another opportunity tonight to build on the surprisingly quick rebound he has engineered since receiving a "shellacking" from the voters in November. Thanks to the series of compromises he forged with congressional Republicans in December, followed by the uplifting, heartfelt eulogy he delivered in Tucson — which reminded many voters of why they liked him in the first place — the president is now enjoying his strongest approval ratings since early last year.

But the president and his aides are under no illusions about the tough challenges in the coming months: Even if a more civil tone prevails in Washington, the newly empowered GOP is gearing up for big fights aimed at cutting spending, rolling back the deficit and governmentregulation, and whittling away at the president's health care reforms. As he speaks to the nation from the U.S. House chamber, Obama's stated task will be to lay out his agenda for the coming year. But his real goal will be to reframe those looming battles so that they can be fought on terms more to his liking — not to mention, on terms that will appeal to the many independent and Democratic voters who have grown skeptical of his administration and its ability to get the economy moving again.

So what to watch as the speech gets under way? Here's a viewer's guide:

The style: When it comes to the State of the Union, there are two kinds of speeches presidents typically give. Option one is a long, detailed policy agenda that serves as a checklist for all the things he has accomplished and the many more he — and the multiple constituencies he aims to please — would still like to see enacted. The second is a more broadly thematic speech intended to inspire Americans' imagination by laying out a compelling national narrative — with the details to be filled in later. In recent years, most presidents have stuck to the laundry-list style, perhaps none more than Bill Clinton, whose valedictory State of the Union in 2000 clocked in at nearly 90 minutes.

In his first two addresses to the nation, Obama, too, has leaned heavily on the policy specifics. But it's not likely he'll do it again. As he demonstrated anew in Tucson, Obama is at his best when he sets out broad themes and speaks more directly to the nation's aspirations. Obama as professor-in-chief over the past two years has proved a much less compelling orator.

"He'll be much more inclined, after Tucson, to go thematic," says Norm Ornstein, a political analyst with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. Not only is it much more comfortable terrain for the president — it's far more successful with voters. Watch for him to emphasize the need to work together to solve the nation's problems, and offer a few olive branches on policy to the Republicans to show them, along with those watching at home, that he's sincere.

The message: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. The president has sent a message loud and clear in recent days: His speech will be focused largely on jobs and the challenges of getting the economy growing again.

That's hardly a surprise. In poll after poll, Americans have made clear for many months that jobs and the economy are their overwhelming priority. "In this environment, jobs dominate everything," says Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg, who, along with consultant James Carville, crafted the successful messaging on the economy that helped Bill Clinton get elected.

Yet one big reason the Democrats performed so dismally last November was that many Americans didn't think that Obama and his congressional allies were paying enough attention to the issue as they got distracted by health care, the Gulf oil spill and a review of Afghanistan war strategy. So when the president takes the podium, his overriding goal will be to convince average Americans — finally — that he gets it.

Language and demeanor: Pay close attention. Language and demeanor will be key to the president's success in rebranding his efforts. Obama has spoken repeatedly, if sporadically, about many of these issues over the past two years. Yet he's often done so in a manner that came off as far too detached to connect with the pain and worries of average Americans. If he wants to win many of those disenchanted voters back, he'll need to develop more effective rhetoric — and a clearer narrative on how all his policies will fit together to rebuild the economy and help ensure a prosperous future for middle- and working-class Americans.

"As he lays out our economic challenges, he needs to connect them with a set of goals that working Americans feel they will have the opportunity to participate in," says Sarah Rosen Wartell, a former domestic policy adviser to Clinton who is now the executive vice president of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank with close ties to the Obama administration.

The president has often talked, for example, about fostering innovation as critical to maintaining the nation's competitive strength and ability to create new jobs,  and he is expected to do so again tonight. Wartell points out that, while clearly important, such talk can often "feel like a great strategy if you have a Ph.D. in biotechnology," but not if you're a struggling factory working or a high school graduate with limited prospects. The State of the Union will essentially give the president an opportunity to start over with those voters, if he can demonstrate that he has a clear vision for the economy that speaks to them.

The specifics: While the president will favor broad themes over a laundry list of proposals, his speech won't be entirely devoid of specifics. Look for him to highlight the need to bolster job growth in the short term but also emphasize that the government has a role to play in promoting measures that will enhance the long-term competitiveness of the U.S. economy and American workers. Improving education, bolstering trade and modernizing infrastructure will all be on the agenda; he'll argue that continued spending on such things as high-speed rail, clean energy and scientific research will help create the jobs of the future. But with little money available and a Congress hostile to new spending, one key question is what he will propose to turn that vision into concrete investments.

At the same time, the president will try to grab the high ground on reducing the deficit; he'll argue that the big spending cuts Republicans want to make are misguided while the economy is still weak. But he'll have to come up with at least a few proposals that show he is serious about restraining spending and reducing the deficits more responsibly over the long term.

"The question is, can he begin to lay out a credible deficit reduction plan?" says Greg Valliere, a Washington policy analyst for the Potomac Research Group. If he can begin to do that, says Valliere, he'll have far more leverage in the upcoming battles with Congress.

The biggest controversy may come if, as expected, he indicates a willingness to reform Social Security. Many Democrats will be watching warily to see how far he'll go in backing calls from his own bipartisan deficit commission to raise the retirement age or trim other benefits. He is also expected to endorse calls for broad-ranging tax reform that would overhaul how businesses — and maybe individuals — pay taxes. Proponents say that by simplifying the tax structure and eliminating many deductions, overall tax rates could be lowered for everyone even as the government brings in more revenue to limit the red ink.

The mood: In past years, the floor of Congress has come to feel like something akin to a partisan pep rally on the night of the State of the Union. Democrats all sit on one side of the chamber, Republicans all sit on the other, and each side offers up vigorous support only when their own party's president is in power. This year, several members have agreed to sit together in what's intended to be a visible show of support for efforts to reduce the nasty partisanship in today's politics.

Will the new seating chart change the mood in the room? Many have dismissed the move as little more than symbolic — and not everyone is going along. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), for one, has refused.

But proponents of the idea say the symbolism matters. "Americans want Washington to do something, but they also want [political leaders] to behave in a way that elevates the nation, not drags it down," says Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at Third Way, a centrist think tank. Sure, it may just be a baby step to greater cooperation, but that's better than no step at all.

Whether or not that has any long-term impact, it will certainly make for a less strange piece of political theater. "It will be a different experience watching the State of the Union, not seeing everyone on one side jumping up together like a jack-in-the-box, with the other side sitting on their hands like a gloomy Gus," says Kessler. The floor of Congress "will look less like a hockey game."

That hardly means that "Kumbaya" will be the order of the day, however. One clear sign of the battles ahead: Despite the mingled seating, Republicans will still be unlikely to show much enthusiasm — especially when Obama lays out specifics. And Democrats may struggle to muster much support for ideas borrowed from the Republican playbook, such as corporate tax reform or reining in Social Security. Watch to see if those ideas get far more backing from Republicans than Democrats.

The moments: In the aftermath of Tucson, most of the senators and representatives in the audience will be as intent as the president on putting forth a new, more civil face. So we're unlikely to see anyone yell out "You Lie" to the president, as Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) did when Obama gave a speech to Congress on health care, or to witness something like the moment last year when Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito mouthed "not true" to the president after Obama criticized the court's ruling on a campaign finance case.

But there will still be moments of tension — starting with the question of which of the justices will attend. Last year's incident ignited a debate over whether it's appropriate for justices to attend such a political event. Alito has said he won't be coming this year, and Justice Antonin Scalia hasn't been in a decade. As for the other seven justices, it's unclear who is planning to show.

There will be emotional highlights as well, especially as many of those touched by the Tucson shootings will be sitting with first lady Michelle Obama in her gallery box in the House chamber. Daniel Hernandez, the intern who helped save Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' life, is expected, as are Dr. Peter Rhee and several other doctors who attended to the victims . The first lady has also invited members of the family of Christina Taylor Green, the 9-year-old killed in the attack. The president's speech will no doubt feature another brief but moving tribute to those lost in the shooting and the heroism displayed that day. And that, no doubt, will again win applause from all.

—Jane Sasseen is the editor-in-chief of politics and opinion at Yahoo! News.