Obama: Oh, did I step on your debates? So reschedule!

President Obama has decided to address a joint session of the Congress on the evening of Sept. 7. That is the same night as the next televised debate of Republican candidates for president. But don't worry - it's just a coincidence! Even so, the White house says the debaters can just get stuffed, anyway.

White House Press Secretary Jay Carney said that the president did not choose the timing of the speech because of the Republican debate. "No. Of course not. There were a lot of considerations," Carney said when asked if the date was an intentional attempt to upstage the debate. "One debate of many that's on one channel of many was not enough reason not to have the speech at the time that we decided to have it." He added that the debate organizers were free to change the time if they wanted.

Sure, no problem! However, Speaker of the House John Boehner has advised the president that he is free to change the night of the address.



The White House responded by saying that it had "cleared" the Sept. 7 date and time with the Republicans. To which Speaker Boehner's spokesman office responded:

"No one in the Speaker's office - not the Speaker, not any staff - signed off on the date the White House announced today. Unfortunately we weren’t even asked if that date worked for the House. Shortly before it arrived this morning, we were simply informed that a letter was coming. It’s unfortunate the White House ignored decades - if not centuries - of the protocol of working out a mutually agreeable date and time before making any public announcement.”

There is no cheap political trick that this president will not attempt. This is nothing compared to what will come over the next 15 months.

Update: Obama caved, as is his custom:

Here is a statement from White House Press Secretary Jay Carney:

“Today, the President asked to address the Congress about the need for urgent action on the economic situation facing the American people as soon as Congress returned from recess. Both Houses will be back in session after their August recess on Wednesday, September 7th, so that was the date that was requested. We consulted with the Speaker about that date before the letter was released, but he determined Thursday would work better. The President is focused on the urgent need to create jobs and grow our economy, so he welcomes the opportunity to address a Joint Session of Congress on Thursday, September 8th and challenge our nation’s leaders to start focusing 100% of their attention on doing whatever they can to help the American people.”

Heh: "And instead of going up against a Republican debate, the President's speech will have to fight for viewers with the opening game of the NFL season."

And let the backtracking begin!

"Cleared" [with the Republicans] officially downgraded to "consulted." So someone at WH anonymously passed along inaccurate information to several journos. Nice.

Update: Even the Washington Post isn't buying it:

There are no coincidences in presidential politics.

Strategists spend hours poring over every word a president utters, every policy position he takes and every state he visits, a level of attention to detail that makes happenstance virtually nonexistent.

And so, when the White House announced today that President Obama would deliver his much-anticipated jobs speech on Sept. 7 at 8 pm — the exact same day and time that the 2012 Republican candidates are scheduled to debate in California — the idea that the timing was purely coincidental was, well, far-fetched.

Far fetched? An enormous understatement.

Poli-Sci Prof. Steven Taylor puts it succinctly: "Obama got Punk’d."

Top Dog and First Mover

A "Top Dog" is A company that dominates its industry.

A "First Mover" is a company with a technology or product so revolutionary that disrupts an existing industry and create an entire new one.



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Caption Contest!

Leave a caption as a comment. Winner receives a laurel and hearty handshake!

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"Bill Keller’s Idiotic Questions"

The Captain's Journal » Bill Keller’s Idiotic Questions: Herschel Smith nails the ignorance behind Bill Keller's questioning of Michele Bachmann. The question in question:

You have said that watching the film series “How Should We Then Live?” by the evangelist Francis Schaeffer was a life-altering event for you. That series stresses the "inerrancy" ­— the literal truth — of the Bible. Do you believe the Bible consists of literal truths, or that it is to be taken more metaphorically?

Herschel goes on to disassemble the simplistic presumptions behind Keller's question, observing, among other things, "Any thinking Christian has to answer Keller’s question, yes and yes. It is both-and, not either-or."

Quite. But Keller doesn't know what he's talking about in another way,too. Keller thinks biblical inerrancy means "the literal truth." That is, to believe that the Bible is inerrant means that its texts must be read at face value only. And of course, fundamentalists do stress that.

But inerrancy does not have to mean only that. I believe the Bible is inerrant but I do not believe that literalism is a faithful reading of the Scriptures in every case or verse. In fact, literalism is not even possible in countless cases because of translation nuances. In many cases we cannot know what the verse "literally" says, and in countless others the cultural contexts are so lost that we can only guess what they might mean.

Even so, one can hold the Scriptures to be inerrant in the way that John Wesley did, but focusing on what he called the great chains of interconnected spiritual truths throughout the Bible.

Another point, that Herschel touches on as well: the form of the literature of the passages concerned is crucial to interpreting them. Historical passages should be taken at face value, For example, the story of young David slaying Goliath is a straightforward, historical account and there is no reason to doubt that it happened pretty much the way it is presented. But consider Jesus's parables throughout the Gospels, for example the parable of the prodigal son in Luke 15. Is the parable literally true? Or did Jesus tell a stylized story to drive home a religious teaching? The story is parabolically true without regard to its "actually happened" truth. We do not have to take the Bible literally to take it seriously.

Tell ya what, Mr. Keller: I assert the inerrancy of the Bible a lot more confidently than you can assert the inerrancy of the New York Times.

Here’s SIX things I like about you:

(By Gabe Romney…transcribed from the birthday card he made for Seth)

1.  You’re always happy

2.  You’re always trying to help

3.  You are great at making friends

4.  At times you can be my best buddy

5.  You’re a kind little brother and a great big brother

6.  You are the BEST brother in the world!

Bankruptcy

• BANKRUPTCY ACT - Singapore Statutes Online

• What it means to be trapped in bankruptcy | Singapore Watch

• BANKRUPTCY RULES

• Bankruptcy Laws in Singapore | eHow.com

• DebtReform - Consultant

• Info Search Insolvency Service (.gov.sg)

• Personal Bankruptcy Proceedings in Singapore

Irene: "Hurricane of hype"

AFP: Did hurricane of hype engulf New York?:

Dripping wet, wind scraping at their microphones, the reporters stood resolutely in the familiar pose of hurricane journalists -- water everywhere and bodies bent to the gale.



Never mind that during one network's report, ordinary people could be seen calmly walking around while the correspondent seemingly battled to stay upright.

Not that this is anything new. Remember this NBC report from a few years ago?







There are, however, a million-plus people without electricity and 18 whose deaths are blamed in the storm.



But the "New York as the center of the universe" mindset of the major media was just silly.

Putting our debt very simply

Lop Off 8 Zeros: The Debt Issue Made Simple @ AMERICAN DIGEST:

Via Theo

S'poreans still value political stability

Tony Tan wins the PE by the narrowest of margins -- a mere 0.34 per cent of total votes. (Yahoo!)

Singaporeans still value political stability and are not quite ready for a President who speaks up more and is an activist, said political analysts Yahoo! Singapore spoke to.

On early Sunday morning, Dr Tony Tan pipped Dr Tan Cheng Bock by slightly over 7,000 votes -- 0.34 per cent -- of total votes in a nationwide poll to become the seventh President of Singapore.

Both candidates were former members of the ruling People's Action Party. Together, the former deputy prime minister and former party backbencher respectively amassed nearly 1.5 million votes out of a possible 2.1 million cast.

Professor Eugene Tan, a lecturer at the Singapore Management University, said it showed that Singaporeans are still not ready to have a President that rocked the boat too much.

"Both Dr Tans were seen as candidates that could work with the Government. Both Dr Tans polled almost 70% of the popular vote.That suggests that the PAP branding for a candidate is not a liability as is widely perceived," he said.

On what were the key factors behind Dr Tan's win, he said, "Dr Tan's experience in public and private sectors and brand recognition from his years as a Cabinet Minister" and the fact that the non-Establishment vote was split between the other three candidates, Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian.

Dr Tony Tan is Singapore's seventh President. (REUTERS Photo/Tim Chong)

Tan Jee Say, who said he intended to play the role of "auditor and gatekeeper" if he had won, came in with 25 per cent, or 529,732, of votes, while former NTUC chief Tan Kin Lian garnered less than 5 per cent of votes. The latter is set to lose his election deposit of S$48,000.

"Mr Tan Kin Lian's very poor showing suggests that he will have to reconsider if he has political appeal while for Mr Tan Jee Say, the options are plentiful. He is likely to rejoin opposition politics... and we can expect him to run in the next PE in 2017," added Professor Tan.

Professor Tan also said that Dr Tan Cheng Bock's coming out of political retirement demonstrated that his political currency is still strong but age may not be on his side for the next PE as he will be 77 then.

Gillian Koh, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, told Channel NewsAsia that there was "not enough strong support" for a president that should speak up more and to initiate discussion of policy issues.

However, another political analyst Dr Reuben Wong cautioned that while Tony Tan's "experience and expertise are valued by voters", he will need to "respond to the concerns of the 60-odd per cent that voted someone else."

Meanwhile, reaction from Singaporean netizens about the results was mixed.

Producer Ben Tan said that he's happy with the result.

"Among the candidates, Tony Tan appears to be the most political savvy although I think that the elections is a bit farcical considering that he or any candidate who wins will have less than 40 per cent of the popular vote," said the 27-year-old.

"I expect him to work closely with the government, ensuring that our past reserves are used only under extraordinary circumstances, and to champion the causes of nation building and integration," Tan added.

26-year-old student Lee Quanta also agreed that Dr Tony Tan deserved to win because "he has been contributing to the nation and you can't deny that he has helped the nation before and is approachable on at international level."

He expects Dr Tan to "uphold the nation and bring changes to the nation and not just be the President for the sake of being one. Be sure to know his stand and what he can do to help the people in the country."

Dr Tan Cheng Bock received loud cheers from his supporters at Jurong East Stadium. (Photo by Nicky Loh/Getty I …

Others online though were upset with the results but still welcomed Dr Tony Tan as the seventh president of Singapore.

"It's indeed sad and unfortunate for Singapore that Dr Tan Cheng Bock did not become our next president. Put nation before politics," User RD commented.

30 something wrote on Yahoo! Singapore's Facebook wall, "The result basically reflects what kind of President Singaporeans want. Half of TCB (Tan Cheng Bock) + Half of TT (Tony Tan). The winner, Tony Tan will have to work towards what TCB portrayed in order to win hearts of voters."

"Regardless of who we voted for, we should stand behind our new President to give him the support he needs to best progress our country," said Sky.

Tan Jee Say won one in four votes and clinched 529,732 votes. (Yahoo! photo/Aeron Chew)

However, a legal secretary who only wanted to be known as Tham, 37, said she is unhappy with the results.

"I want a President that is outspoken and not a puppet" and cited that Tan Jee Say would have been the best choice for President "because he has a humble background and he understands the life led by commoners".

2.27 million Singaporeans were eligible to vote in this year's Presidential Election, the first Presidential Election in 18 years. Total votes received were 2,153,014, inclusive of the 37,826 rejected votes.

Tan Kin Lian conceded defeat at an early stage of counting after visiting three counting centres. (Yahoo! photo/Liyana …

President-elect Tony Tan will be sworn in this Thursday, 1 September. He will replace outgoing SR Nathan and will be Singapore's seventh President.

Another crash coming?

John Mauldin says yes, and this time it will be initiated by Europe and will drag the United States down with it:



Update: "Capital Flight Proves Confidence in European Interbank System has Collapsed"

Capital flight from European banks has now reached such a state that for one undisclosed bank needed emergency funding last week for a mere $5 million. Previously, the ECB stepped in to provide $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to non-disclosed banks.

As money flees Europe, it lands in US banks that do not know what to do with it. Capital flight has led to negative interest rates in the US.

Wasting a mint at the US Mint

"The only thing more shocking than the waste in this video is the fact that the report came from the MSM" - American Glob blog.



Short course: The US Mint, in compliance with a 2005 statute, spends $600,000 per day to make presidential dollars that are immediately placed into storage, not circulation. The Mint spends millions of dollars just transporting the dollar coins to storage and is about to spend another potful of money to build another warehouse.

The coins, of course, are made of an alloy of base metals and are therefore worthless in themselves.

The solution, ISTM, is to get the Mint out of making coins in denominations higher than 25 cents unless they are made of silver or gold proportional to their face value.

Fine silver or gold US Mint coins sell out completely. Example: in 2008 the Mint was authorized to strike and sell 2009-dated Ultra-High Relief Gold Eagle coins of one ounce of .999 pure gold. But the authorization did not continue after a specified run to be completed in 2009 - there were no 2010 coins or later.

These were collector, bullion coins denominated at $50 and are legal tender. Needless to say, the Mint did not sell them for $50! Spot gold was just under $1,000 then, and the coins sold for a premium above that. (I bought one, the limit per household, for $1,280 in February 2009, and it still sits in my lockbox. You can buy one on eBay if you wish, but gold spots now at almost $1,800.)

If the government wants dollar coins to circulate, it needs to make them with a dollar's worth of silver. That means that the government would have to take steps to stabilize the price of silver (leaving high-profit sales of gold coins as collectibles). Should the Mint buy silver every month or so at the spot price? Of course not; that would not stabilize silver's price.

But say the Mint was to strike a billion silver-alloy dollars. The government could announce it would buy silver at $30 per ounce, which is about where silver's spot was earlier this month. That would be a purchase 33,333,333.3 ounces, so that each dollar contained 1/30th ounce of silver. (The days of the one-ounce silver dollar being worth a dollar are gone forever.) This would stabilize the value of the dollar immediately and people would take them off the Mint's hands - no warehousing required.

Of course, there are some issues:

1. If the Mint is to buy silver at $30/ounce, what will it use for payment? Can't use silver for obvious reasons. Paper dollars? Why would a silver refiner take paper dollars to hand over silver metal that will be converted to hard dollars? (It would make sense in this way: paper money can be electronically transferred so that actual printed dollars need not actually change hands, but hard money can't.)

2. Silver has production costs that are incurred regardless of the spot price or the government's prospective price. A fixed buying price may depress rather than increase raw production of silver ore.

This highlights the difficulty of moving to gold- or silver-backed dollars that most hard-money advocates overlook.

Sell PUT and CALL

Selling a put obligates investors to buy more stock should the stock price dip below the put's strike price.

If the stock market plunges lower—and two major macro-economic events will occur in the next few weeks—put sellers could be buying stock at sharply lower prices.

Selling call obligates investors to sell their stock should the stock price rise above the call's strike price.

If the stock market plunges, and the stock never rises above the call's strike price, the money received for selling the call is like an extra dividend payment.

In fact, the money received for selling puts or calls and buying stock can be thought of as conditional dividends. If the stock doesn't cross the strike price of the put or call, investors can keep the money.

Another strategy rising in popularity is the "risk reversal." By selling a put with a strike price that is below the stock's price, and buying a call with a strike price above the stock's price, many investors are finding they can get paid by the options market to speculate on stock prices.

If the stock surges higher, moving past the call's strike price, investors can sell the call bought for free at a profit. If the stock price declines below the put's strike price, investors are obligated to buy the stock.

The key in these options strategies is to use them only on stocks you want to own. If the stock pays a dividend, even better.

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Tanjong Pagar Train Station : 1932 - 2011

Inside Afghanistan’s Deadly Copter War

Inside Afghanistan’s Deadly Copter War | Danger Room | Wired.com:

Chief Warrant Officer John Guffey, one of the former infantryman, remembers the exact moment he decided he would become a pilot. In 2002, he was a passenger in a Chinook transport helicopter that crashed in the Central Valley of Afghanistan, just north of Kandahar. His platoon had taken casualties, and they had been assigned to guard the downed aircraft while waiting for evacuation.

“I’m sitting there, and this Apache [attack helicopter] comes over, and he’s flying real slow,” recalls Guffey. “It’s 120 degrees. My commander walks over and says, ‘I bet you wish you were flying that thing. That’s the only aircraft in the Army inventory that has an air conditioner. It’s probably 70 degrees inside that cockpit.’ I looked up at the Apache pilot and flipped him off … and he puts his arms around himself like he’s cold. Right then, I decided I was gonna be a pilot one day."

Read the whole thing. HT: Blackfive

Vacation management

Do you remember when George W. Bush was vacationing while Hurricane Katrina bore down on the Gulf Coast like a panjandrum? And how he simply issued a statement from his posh vacation quarters that people should seek shelter - but he stayed on vacation rather than return to Washington to be on hand at the seat of government to manage the emergency?

Oh, I don't remember that, either.

But today, as Irene hurtles toward the North Carolina shore, on track so wreak flooding and devastation all the way north of New York City:

A sun-soaked relaxer-in-chief spent close to five hours at a private Edgartown beach with the first family yesterday — still with no plans to cut the presidential vacation short while other islanders heeding the threat of Hurricane Irene packed up paradise and high-tailed it to the mainland. . . . He had no plans to leave Martha’s Vineyard early — even as emergency crews mobilized around him.

But not to worry! President Laidback is still on top of the situation:

Obama, speaking on Martha’s Vineyard this morning, said all indications suggest Hurricane Irene will be an “historic” storm.

He warned residents in the path of the storm to take the dangers seriously and be prepared.

Gee, thanks, Barry! But we already knew that -- it's exactly what the Weather Channel folks have been saying for days.

Update: Just after 1 p.m. today, the White House announced that President Obama will return there tonight with his family to follow Saturday morning.

The problem is the temporizing and millions of people to be affected by the storm left wondering whether the chief executive will actually be on the job as Irene slams into them. Irene's landfall early tomorrow morning in North Carolina will not be a surprise. Warnings and evacuations there began two days ago. A simple statement yesterday or even Wednesday from the White House would have avoided what almost became a Katrina moment for President Obama. It would have needed to have been only a couple of lines: "The president receives frequent updates on the progress of Hurricane Irene and its forecasts. He will return to Washington in time to oversee federal relief efforts from the White House." End of story.

New measures from MAS: Customer Knowledge Assessment (CKA)

New measures from MAS: Customer Knowledge Assessment (CKA)

Dear Valued Investor, Our regulator, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, released new measures and enhanced requirements, aimed at safeguarding the interest of investors. These measures apply to unit trusts as well as other financial instruments and will go into full effect starting 1 January 2011. Under the new measures, a customer knowledge assessment (CKA) will be conducted by all distributors in order to assess whether the consumer has the relevant knowledge or experience to understand the risks and features of the product they are buying. If he fails this assessment, then MAS will not allow "execution only" services to be provided. This impacts online distributors like Fundsupermart in a major way due to our business model, which is essentially "self execution only". Online unit trust distributors like Fundsupermart essentially function like online stock brokerages, except we distribute unit trusts instead of stocks. The customer goes online, does the research himself, and executes his own unit trust trades - generally all "self execution only". Now, however, with the new measures, all distributors, including Fundsupermart, will perform customer knowledge assessments on our customers. If you pass the assessment, then well and good, you can proceed with executing the trades yourself. However, when you fail, you will be stopped from "self execution" trades. Distributors are required to stop you from proceeding if you are assessed to have failed. Having said all this, I would like to reassure all investors that Fundsupermart remains committed to the unit trust business and we are in for the long haul. So we are busy modifying our IT systems to take into account these changes, and I assure everyone that we will strive to effectively implement them with as little hassle as possible. We fully support investors receiving a higher degree of protection, as this new set of regulations require. Additionally, we have hired client investment specialists who will be providing investment advice to investors who need it. For now though, it is important to understand the criteria required to pass the CKA, especially for those of you who want to place your own trades unimpeded. To pass, you need to satisfy just any of the following three criteria. Have at least 6 transactions in unit trusts or investment linked products in the last 3 years; Have a diploma or higher qualification in relevant courses like accountancy, actuarial science, business, capital markets, commerce, economics finance, financial engineering, financial planning, computational finance and insurance; Have a minimum of 3 consecutive years of working experience in the past 10 years in the development, structuring, management, sale, trading, or research and analysis of investment products. (Work experience in accountancy, actuarial science, treasury or financial risk management is also considered relevant experience). As you can see, the work experience and educational qualification requirement are rather specific and may not be easy for everyone to meet. Of the three, criteria 1, which is at least 6 transactions in the past 3 years, is the easiest and most straightforward one to meet. We will be putting up a FAQ in due course to explain further specifics of these 3 criteria, as well as other details about this new CKA. We will also aim to launch our modified IT system in due course. Thus, for now, please do not be alarmed about these new regulations. Rest assured, we will make every effort to explain and implement them as efficiently and painlessly as possible to all investors. If you have further questions, feel free to call our hotline or email us. Yours sincerely, General Manager, Fundsupermart

fundsupermart.com - Invest Globally and Profitably

Nexus Break-Fast Dinner 2011

Raya Coming soon, and our company had a dinner is sheraton imperial hotel

our break fast dinner held in Essence restaurant.


here is the restaurant view.


the environment, where we have our dinner.


and as usual, the buffet style, there food here is more to local local cuisine, and also some foreign food can be spotted here.


V-tek,ai wen, san san , and philips.


Siew Ling, Shin Yee, Meng Moon, Pue Kuan, Gabriel , Wei Chiew, Arfa and Ilma


Table of Stan and Brandon.


Iday,Eka and Auzani


The ladies in Nexus. Ilma, Arfa, Idayu, Aslina and Angela.


almost forgot to take picture of myself.. here i am :)


And here is the complete group photo of all Staff in  Nexus Malaysia

11 Things I would like to tell Gabe on his 11th Birthday

(by Ryan)

1.) You have the drive and dedication of someone twice your age. 

2.) I love your blend of natural mathematical talent and hard work – it’s so fun to see those two together.

3.) Boys are mean when they are unsure of themselves, there are a lot of insecure boys in middle school.  Don’t let their underdeveloped characters get you down.

4.) You swim like a fish

5.) I respect how seriously you live gospel principles.

6.) Failing something hard/new ALWAYS trumps succeeding at what is easy/safe. 

7.) You do a great job of being responsible with your money. 

8.) It is sweet how grateful you are for everything. 

9.) I want to be your best friend

10.) I have never met a kid who earned every Webelos pin they make, … well until now.  You are awesome!

(taken at the Pool Party Pack Meeting where Gabe was awarded most of his pins)

11.)  I feel profoundly blessed that you are my son.

Photos: Washington Monument damages

Federal News Radio 1500 AM: Washington Monument damages



From these shots, closing the monument was not merely a precaution. It really was damaged by the earthquake.

Is gold a bubble or a new normal?

Harry S Truman said that he wanted a one-armed economic adviser because then he never have to listen to the adviser say, "But on the other hand..."

And so it seems to be with gold. On the bubble side, Dennis Gartman:

Dennis personally sold a lot of his gold in the course of the last 54 hours, and actually states that he wishes he sold everything. Dennis says that the way this market has traded, the manner in which the public got aligned with it and came into the gold market, the manner in which you had all signs replicating periods in the past when other markets made their tops, the fact that the SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE:GLD), became a more greater capitalized event than was the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) — more value — you get at market tops.

Gartman feels we’re in a period of low growth and low inflation. that is not the right recipe for gold. He thinks the public was sold a very false supposed safe harbor in gold, and this is going to be a painful down move. Quote, “we have a lot further to go.”

On the "new normal" side, Tim Seymour:

Even counting the 2008-9 recession and the more recent downturn, emerging markets (NYSE:EEM) generated annualized performance of 18% a year since 2003.

Compare that to the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), which has delivered 5% a year over the same period: not terrible, but not great.

Meanwhile, it turns out that gold (NYSE:GLD) has surged an annualized 23% since 2003, with less volatility.

This is not just a bubble run for gold. It has been a structural shift in the way the world’s markets work and the way global risk is managed.

Yer pays yer nickel and ya takes yer chances. For the record, I am not invested in gold in any way.

Update: Another perspective:

Of particular concern is that the general public probably got into the gold trade during the later innings. “The public owns gold at high prices – and now any rally will be met with sellers,” Gartman says. He also thinks big hedge funds will be damaged by the sharp decline. Hedge funds who say they are long in a position if they hold it longer that 15 minutes stand to lose huge amounts of money in gold and that too could generate liquidation pressure.

I suspect this is true - members of the general public who heeded the incessant advertiements to buy gold now probably have, as a class, gotten into that market too late to avoid taking either small or negative gains when the selloff begins (if indeed a selloff does begin, of course).

People who invested in physical gold rather than gold funds or trusts will be cut up particularly rough because it will be very difficult for them to liquidate quickly. It will be a buyers market and you should expect to be offered no more than two-thirds of the spot price at the time you sell, maybe less.

Why Bank Of America dserves to go bust

Bank Of America Forecloses On A Man Who Made Every Mortgage Payment On Time



In used to bank at B of A, starting back when it was called NationsBank. Fortunately, I got out two years ago. Warren Buffett can pump all the money into B of A he wants, it's still a bank to avoid.

Steve Jobs Steps Down

By Jeff Macke | Breakout – Thu, Aug 25, 2011 7:05 AM EDT

Steve Jobs is one of the greatest business leaders in American history. This isn't merely a function Jobs' unimaginable success at Apple (AAPL) since reclaiming the mantle of the company after a forced hiatus, but his entire body of work.

Among Jobs's other successes is buying Pixar from George Lucas for $10 million in 1986, then selling the company to Disney (DIS) for $7.4 billion in 2006. The transaction made Jobs the largest shareholder in the Mouse House. Not bad for what amounted to a side-gig/ hobby.

Even the man's missteps turned to gold. After leaving Apple in the mid '80's, Jobs founded NeXT Computer. Though technically advanced, NeXT was shunned by the mass market, received a tepid response from corporate users, and sold only 50,000 units. NeXT was widely regarded as a disappointment -- that is, until 1996, when Apple brought Jobs back into the fold by paying him nearly half a billion dollars.

Jobs had, and indeed still has, a preternatural ability to understand the wants and needs of his customers before they know themselves. Such a talent is the defining characteristic of a visionary, and Jobs has few, if any, rivals in that regard.

All of this is true, but it ignores the only question Apple investors should be asking themselves today. Specifically: Where does Jobs's departure leave Apple? What does it mean for Apple? And what does his exit mean for shareholders?

Is this somewhat cold? Yes. Is it the question Jobs himself would be asking were he in the shoes of the average investor? Absolutely. For all of his attributes, Steve Jobs is also known as one of the most ruthless businessmen and intolerant ball-busters in corporate America today.

You want more incentive for taking a gimlet-eyed look at Apple's stock post Steve Jobs? Pull up Microsoft's stock since Bill Gates left day-to-day operations in January of 2000. Microsoft (MSFT) isn't alone. From Henry Ford to Sam Walton to Howard Shultz, the history of companies in the wake of the departure of charismatic long-time leaders tends to be ugly.

In order to help handicap Apple's future, it's useful to break down the company's field position in terms of both leadership and competition -- the most important predictors of a company's success or failure.

Leadership
Current Apple COO Tim Cook is taking over Jobs' CEO role. Cook is a 13-year Apple vet with an intense approach to finding, then killing, inefficiencies. As part of raising his profile for the CEO gig, Cook has been handling conference calls and increasing amounts of press. As part of this effort, Cook was featured in a 2008 slightly less than hard-hitting Fortune magazine cover story entitled "The Genius Behind Steve Jobs." The piece wasn't exactly on par with Watergate coverage, but it did illustrate Apple's nonpareil control of its own image.

Cook presumably has an intimate knowledge of Apple's inner workings. But Apple isn't so much about efficient operations as it is about selling insanely cool stuff in remarkably appealing ways. There is little to no evidence that Cook has Jobs's obsession or ability with design. No one does. Cook also lacks anything even resembling Jobs's charisma -- also true for the rest of the world.
He may deserve to take over for Jobs, but that doesn't make Cook the right man for the task. Lets just say Cook has a lot to prove, and he better start doing so fast.

The Apple Board of Directors
Apple has the exact type of Board of Directors you'd expect Jobs to have assembled when he returned to the company after being fired in favor of a soda-pop executive. In other words, the board is by all available evidence a group of figureheads whose decisions over the past 10 years have related only to saying yes to the Svengali in charge and deciding how many stock options to bestow upon him.
Consider the board's subservience to Jobs in the communications regarding his illness as it developed late last decade. One of a corporate board's key mandates is communication with shareholders regarding material information involving key executives.

Despite this duty, the company announced in 2009 that a visibly ailing Jobs's shocking appearance was the result of a "hormone imbalance." Shortly thereafter, Jobs took a medical leave. In June of that year, the Wall Street Journal reported that Jobs had received a liver transplant months earlier. The company confirmed this report only later, coincidentally at the same time as the release of the third generation iPhone.

Was Jobs entitled to privacy during his ailment? Absolutely -- that is, if he hadn't been the face and driving force behind the most important technology company in the world. Jobs was the CEO of a public company and he was going through life-threatening surgery. This was obviously material information known only to select outsiders not in the employment of Apple (hospital workers, among many others). The board's silence may have violated no laws but was a clear violation of their moral duty to shareholders.

Apple's board is, by all appearances, a collection of lapdogs. The jury is very much out as to whether or not they begin working on behalf of their shareholders now that their master is leaving.

Competitive landscape
Google: Google (GOOG) is still a one-trick pony, but they certainly picked a nice time to stick a toe into expanding their Android efforts with the Motorola patent and hardware buyout. If Google can execute -- and that is a HUGE if -- then it could mount a mobile OS challenge to Apple a few years down the road.

Amazon (AMZN): The only online retailer in the world that's better than Apple is up and running with cloud already, presenting a clear and present danger to Apple's cloud ambitions. Both Apple and Amazon are extraordinary operators. This race could get interesting.

Microsoft: Man oh man, would Microsoft love to regain some of the ground they're losing to Apple. Hell, Microsoft would love to just slow their share erosion on the consumer front. And I'd like to be 23 years old, 6'7" tall and have explosive hops. I'll be in the NBA before Microsoft slows apple.

Anyone who makes a tablet: Just give up for five years and see if Apple somehow screws up the iPad monopoly.

Phone makers: Ha. No chance whatsoever to take advantage of Jobs's departure. None.
Hewlett Packard (HPQ), Dell (DELL) and anyone else making PCs: Your product is both a commodity and a rapidly dying one at that. You'd be better off making CD-ROMs or slide projectors.

Bottom line
Apple has leadership questions from top to bottom and is losing one of the best -- if not THE best -- CEOs in history. Apple has untold billions in cash, a monster pipeline of cool stuff in the works, thousands of talented designers who learned from the very best and dominant leadership positions in most of the important consumer tech product areas with a growing footprint in enterprise.

Jobs's departure may hit the stock for the near term, and it certainly raises questions for Apple's growth prospects two or three years out, but the company's competitive position gives Tim Cook a good deal of time to develop in his role and further build his bench.

In terms of the stock overall, my take is that there's no reason to panic but Apple shares are no longer a "one decision" buy-and-hold-forever proposition. If the company's product lineup shows signs of faltering as we get into 2012, it will be a sign that Apple's hard-earned title as the best company on earth is nearing an end.


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ÖZEL TASARIM BAYRAM KURABİYELERİ

End this welfare for the rich!

Glenn Reynolds links to NYU finance professor Viral Acharya's call to fix the housing market by ending income-tax deductions for interest charges on home mortgages.

The less told story on such subsidies is what they have done to generate more demand and push up prices, he says. “One the one hand you are actually getting all your subsidies, but you are actually paying more for the property you would have liked to consume,” says Acharya. “Therefore the real subsidy goes only [to those] at the very top. It is for people who are buying a second house. It is for people who are buying more land than they would otherwise.”

Not only have government subsidies failed to really help everyday people, except to “prop up the housing market artificially,” says Acharya, but the big question also remains: Who’s paying for all these subsidies? “It’s sort of a Ponzi scheme, because the current generation is reaping all its benefits, but we’re basically scaling up our government debt in response, and someone else is going to pay for it down the road.”

I called for ending the mortgage-interest deduction in January 2003, but went into detail in November of that year.

As for the mortgage-interest deduction, that needs to go too, and I own my home and benefit from it. The main objection to its elimination is that home values would plummet if the deduction is removed.

But what that really says is that the presumed tax savings are really ephemeral because the deduction is inflating home prices. So you have to pay more than the home is worth because of the deduction. That means that the deduction is skewing prices and hiding the true value of homes, and that alone is sufficient reason to eliminate it, IMO.

However, various studies (link, link, link, for example) show that eliminating the interest deduction would have very little effect on home values, and the effect would be temporary. Most taxpayers are not in the highest tax brackets, so their deductions are relatively modest.

Moreover, normal swings in the housing market are likely to swamp the effects of tax code changes. ... when marginal tax rates were decreased in the early and mid-1980s, reducing the benefit of the mortgage interest deduction, housing prices actually rose.

Glenn concludes, "[I[f the GOP wants to let the blue-state crowd experience the joy of tax increases, they should get behind plans to eliminate or cap the mortgage interest deduction, which will hit residents of higher-priced blue-state houses harder."

The question always comes down to, Whose ox is being gored?

Reasons for optimism in Libya

The fall of Gaddafi — War in Context

Steve Negus says there are three main things that bode well for Libya's future (uncertain though that future is).

• The West has leverage because the rebel alliance knows it could not have prevailed without NATO's airstrikes, but the rebels' honor is intact because they did the hard fighting and bleeding.


• Qaddafi's ruling party was not much bigger than him. There are not large numbers of "dead enders" to oppose the transitional government as there were in Iraq when Saddam was deposed.


• Libya is highly tribal but pretty homogenously Sunni and conservative. There really aren't any heretics, political or religious, that provides easy planting for Islamist radicalism. My comment: that one we will wait and see most of all.