I got one of those frantic letters from my 92 year old mother: "what's going on in Israel? We only hear about Egypt--nothing about Israel? Are you guys okay? Are you still there? "
Well, we are still here and doing just fine. But, that IS the question to ask right now--what ABOUT Israel? With all of its neighbors being shaken to the core, Israel remains calm. That's what's going in Israel right now. In fact, for the first time in Israel's experience, it is no longer the center of attraction. Suddenly the screed that Israel is the source of all that's wrong in the Middle East is silent. And for good reason. Because it has never been true. Ever.
Let's say it again: ISRAEL HAS NEVER BEEN THE PROBLEM IN THE MIDDLE EAST. That's the point. Bush was right. It's about Democracy not puppet states and extortionist regimes. When Israelis are asked from where did this meme appear, they point directly to the culprits. The Clintons (and I voted for him twice and campaigned for him in 1992) and Carter (I voted for that charlatan, too--I am so ashamed) have done more damage here than all the years the British mucked up the region AND India. When the dust settles, perhaps some real work can be done.
It's not over by any means. The US State Department and intelligence has zero ability to read this area. It is an empirical question if the country does not slip into the Iranian model. There are no strong candidates except the fundamentalists. The Army is THE power and they certainly do not want to go the Turkey root, the other loose cannon in the region. In fact, as I write this, the Egyptian Army just shut down the national assembly, suspended the old "constitution", and annouced a new one with elections in 6 months. The risks of recession and a post Shah disaster in Egypt is simply too great. Egypt has become too western and too secular to permit that sort of fundamentalist nonsense.
The US has propped up all the dictators in the area since before the war. EVERYONE is on notice with the way the US treated Mubarak. Egypt is not alone. Jordan, the Emirates, Saudis, Turkey, Algeria, Yemen, Dubai--they are all just dominoes. Even Syria is rocky. The King of Bahrain is so sacred that he's handing out $2700 bribes to each and every family in his country in order to stave off getting the bum's rush. Good luck, dude.
Where there is no more turmoil than usual is Israel and the West Bank. The most disasterous event here in the last ten days is the IKEA store in Netanya burnt to the ground--a significant omen for the Oslo accords if there ever was one. Here we have the usual static but real peace. Now building is going on (can you imagine the fallout if US domestic policy was to halt housing construction for ANY REASON?), employment is way up.
The best source of peace here, which is an everyday reality, is MONEY! EVERYONE is building now. Commercial goods are flowing into the West Bank and there are only smiles from Jews, Christians, and Muslims at the local shopping mall. When the rain clears, I'll continue my astronomy lessons to the Muslim watchmen at the Kibbutz vineyards (they want to be ready for Ramadan).
It is interesting to note that Abbas and his henchmen just took out Jordanian citizenship! They, too, and read the writing on the Wall (over here that's a literal thing, you know) and want to get out of here while they can. So, they're jumping ship--just exactly where do they think it's safe to run?
The real Snake in the Grass in this mix has been Carter. Jimmy Crack Corn. His policies are complete post Southern Reconstruction. His screed has been nothing but separate and unequal. Whenever he shows up, we all notice that he ONLY supports and talks to those who discriminate against Jews, Catholics, and Christians (and Blacks) and whose strong arm thugs wear masks (black Nike masks instead of white sheets). Sound familiar? It is absolutely scandalous that after two generations of Civil Rights that American Foreign Policy has promoted dictators, bigots, terrorists, murders, and rapists. This is to be surpassed by callously abandoning their clients and puppets when the winds turn.
So, when Condi piped up about Birmingham and racism, I was appalled. I, too, remember the Cracker South. Well, my Mizrachi brethren from the Arab World lived in a racist world that makes the South look good. The parallel construction of the South with the Middle East is the Jews=Blacks. Period. Add the Christians of all stripes to the mix as well. All at the bottom of the heap, all with special badges, all paying special infidel taxes, all subject to brutal pogroms simply because they were Christian, Jewish, or non-Muslim. It was truly pathetic--even more than Jimmy.
So, you ask about Egypt.
About time.
But it ain't over by any means.
Peace will come, however, when the Americans and the Europeans shut up, stand back, and stop enabling the racists and extortionists whether right or left.
IN SUM, the entire fiction of the Middle East has split asunder. The problems here are not due to Israel. That screed has only been the classic means to deflect local anger from where it matters most--the domestic inequalities of extortionist Ancient Regimes and are finally imploding. It is time the US and the Europeans stop fanning those flames. The people who must bear the cost for this distorted view of foreign policy are the poor schnooks who have to bear the burden of the despotic yoke of servitude and extortion.
Ironically, it will be the oil that will bring these states down. In the punitive arrogance, the OPEC states have raised the price of oil too much. Economies around the world are strangling and the costs of shipping are so high that ships are simply being laid up or scrapped. The Oil States depended on that revenue for their larder and livelihood. They built their empires on the assumption that the West is addicted to oil and will pay and pay ever higher prices. Well, that ain't true. Now, their economies are in trouble, too. Their domestic troubles are growing as well and all of it is backed up on their US Lackey covering their security problems.
Ah, but Mubarak--the loyal retainer. Couldn't even wait until he's dead from cancer.
So, the price of oil will be their ultimate undoing. It is the contradiction to their mode of production.
Finally, it does show that Israel's economy and social structure is more stable than its neighbors. It is like Reagan's gambit in the 80's--like the Russians, Israel's enemies simply cannot maintain the economic infrastructure to support a constant war against Israel and continued monetary extortion from their local people. The Gulf States make tons of money but they have the worst infant mortality rates and greatest wealth inequalities in the world. They depend on outside talent for ALL their technological development since they dare not educate their masses. They are dependent on foreign goods and talent. When Bechtel pulls the plug, the Gulf states will be through.
The real question will be in the next several months. The lessons of Revolution, as my Old Man would say, lie in the aftermath, the Thermidor. The Army did not fare well in France nor in Iran. We shall see about Egypt. At this point, nothing is clear anywhere in the region. The best that anyone can do is to wait cautiously. This is not a disco or LA or a football game. There's a lot of mist in the woods right now. It's best to wait and see.
If there is no war this summer, then there won't be for a while simply because the Revolution will have spread to Syria, Jordan, and parts East.
A new dawn indeed.
Well, we are still here and doing just fine. But, that IS the question to ask right now--what ABOUT Israel? With all of its neighbors being shaken to the core, Israel remains calm. That's what's going in Israel right now. In fact, for the first time in Israel's experience, it is no longer the center of attraction. Suddenly the screed that Israel is the source of all that's wrong in the Middle East is silent. And for good reason. Because it has never been true. Ever.
Let's say it again: ISRAEL HAS NEVER BEEN THE PROBLEM IN THE MIDDLE EAST. That's the point. Bush was right. It's about Democracy not puppet states and extortionist regimes. When Israelis are asked from where did this meme appear, they point directly to the culprits. The Clintons (and I voted for him twice and campaigned for him in 1992) and Carter (I voted for that charlatan, too--I am so ashamed) have done more damage here than all the years the British mucked up the region AND India. When the dust settles, perhaps some real work can be done.
It's not over by any means. The US State Department and intelligence has zero ability to read this area. It is an empirical question if the country does not slip into the Iranian model. There are no strong candidates except the fundamentalists. The Army is THE power and they certainly do not want to go the Turkey root, the other loose cannon in the region. In fact, as I write this, the Egyptian Army just shut down the national assembly, suspended the old "constitution", and annouced a new one with elections in 6 months. The risks of recession and a post Shah disaster in Egypt is simply too great. Egypt has become too western and too secular to permit that sort of fundamentalist nonsense.
The US has propped up all the dictators in the area since before the war. EVERYONE is on notice with the way the US treated Mubarak. Egypt is not alone. Jordan, the Emirates, Saudis, Turkey, Algeria, Yemen, Dubai--they are all just dominoes. Even Syria is rocky. The King of Bahrain is so sacred that he's handing out $2700 bribes to each and every family in his country in order to stave off getting the bum's rush. Good luck, dude.
Where there is no more turmoil than usual is Israel and the West Bank. The most disasterous event here in the last ten days is the IKEA store in Netanya burnt to the ground--a significant omen for the Oslo accords if there ever was one. Here we have the usual static but real peace. Now building is going on (can you imagine the fallout if US domestic policy was to halt housing construction for ANY REASON?), employment is way up.
The best source of peace here, which is an everyday reality, is MONEY! EVERYONE is building now. Commercial goods are flowing into the West Bank and there are only smiles from Jews, Christians, and Muslims at the local shopping mall. When the rain clears, I'll continue my astronomy lessons to the Muslim watchmen at the Kibbutz vineyards (they want to be ready for Ramadan).
It is interesting to note that Abbas and his henchmen just took out Jordanian citizenship! They, too, and read the writing on the Wall (over here that's a literal thing, you know) and want to get out of here while they can. So, they're jumping ship--just exactly where do they think it's safe to run?
The real Snake in the Grass in this mix has been Carter. Jimmy Crack Corn. His policies are complete post Southern Reconstruction. His screed has been nothing but separate and unequal. Whenever he shows up, we all notice that he ONLY supports and talks to those who discriminate against Jews, Catholics, and Christians (and Blacks) and whose strong arm thugs wear masks (black Nike masks instead of white sheets). Sound familiar? It is absolutely scandalous that after two generations of Civil Rights that American Foreign Policy has promoted dictators, bigots, terrorists, murders, and rapists. This is to be surpassed by callously abandoning their clients and puppets when the winds turn.
So, when Condi piped up about Birmingham and racism, I was appalled. I, too, remember the Cracker South. Well, my Mizrachi brethren from the Arab World lived in a racist world that makes the South look good. The parallel construction of the South with the Middle East is the Jews=Blacks. Period. Add the Christians of all stripes to the mix as well. All at the bottom of the heap, all with special badges, all paying special infidel taxes, all subject to brutal pogroms simply because they were Christian, Jewish, or non-Muslim. It was truly pathetic--even more than Jimmy.
So, you ask about Egypt.
About time.
But it ain't over by any means.
Peace will come, however, when the Americans and the Europeans shut up, stand back, and stop enabling the racists and extortionists whether right or left.
IN SUM, the entire fiction of the Middle East has split asunder. The problems here are not due to Israel. That screed has only been the classic means to deflect local anger from where it matters most--the domestic inequalities of extortionist Ancient Regimes and are finally imploding. It is time the US and the Europeans stop fanning those flames. The people who must bear the cost for this distorted view of foreign policy are the poor schnooks who have to bear the burden of the despotic yoke of servitude and extortion.
Ironically, it will be the oil that will bring these states down. In the punitive arrogance, the OPEC states have raised the price of oil too much. Economies around the world are strangling and the costs of shipping are so high that ships are simply being laid up or scrapped. The Oil States depended on that revenue for their larder and livelihood. They built their empires on the assumption that the West is addicted to oil and will pay and pay ever higher prices. Well, that ain't true. Now, their economies are in trouble, too. Their domestic troubles are growing as well and all of it is backed up on their US Lackey covering their security problems.
Ah, but Mubarak--the loyal retainer. Couldn't even wait until he's dead from cancer.
So, the price of oil will be their ultimate undoing. It is the contradiction to their mode of production.
Finally, it does show that Israel's economy and social structure is more stable than its neighbors. It is like Reagan's gambit in the 80's--like the Russians, Israel's enemies simply cannot maintain the economic infrastructure to support a constant war against Israel and continued monetary extortion from their local people. The Gulf States make tons of money but they have the worst infant mortality rates and greatest wealth inequalities in the world. They depend on outside talent for ALL their technological development since they dare not educate their masses. They are dependent on foreign goods and talent. When Bechtel pulls the plug, the Gulf states will be through.
The real question will be in the next several months. The lessons of Revolution, as my Old Man would say, lie in the aftermath, the Thermidor. The Army did not fare well in France nor in Iran. We shall see about Egypt. At this point, nothing is clear anywhere in the region. The best that anyone can do is to wait cautiously. This is not a disco or LA or a football game. There's a lot of mist in the woods right now. It's best to wait and see.
If there is no war this summer, then there won't be for a while simply because the Revolution will have spread to Syria, Jordan, and parts East.
A new dawn indeed.
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