Is Iran really this stupid? Iran Plot Questions Mounting

Mounting Questions on Iran Terror Plot:

Soon after Attorney General Eric Holder announced the arrest of Iranian-American Manssor Arbabsiar in connection with an alleged Iran-directed plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States, administration officials had harsh words for Iran, but many experts voiced skepticism (NYT). Kenneth Katzman, an Iran expert at the Congressional Research Service, says he and many of his peers believe that elements of the plan--such as the alleged intent to use a Mexican drug cartel to carry out the killing--simply don't comport with what they know "about the way Iranians conduct terrorist attacks" and "the way they implement them." Katzman also notes that the attack, if it had succeeded, would have drawn a strong retaliatory U.S. response, which is something Iran "does not want."

Katzman's observations may be summed up thusly:

1. "The main element that falls apart dramatically is that the assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington was supposed to be carried out by Mexican drug cartel members. Iran has never used surrogates with whom they are unfamiliar. Non-Muslim proxy groups are never used."

2. "The second element that doesn't add up is the plot's origination with this Texas car salesman of Iranian origin. The Iranians almost always use active members of the Quds Force, or Iranian surrogate organizations. They do not go to ex-members or retired members, or relatives of members to carry out dedicated and organized plots."

3. "The third aspect is that this plot might have involved a fairly sizable bombing that could very well have killed a number of people in Washington. The Iranian regime would have known that had it happened, it would have triggered calls for immediate military action against Iran."

3. That the plot's ttarget was the Saudi ambassador to the United States: "That aspect of the alleged plot is actually the one that is most logical. Not specifically that they would go after Ambassador Adel Al Jubeir, but that they would be going after the Saudi regime and Saudi high officials. There's clearly strategic competition, or worse, between these two nations, so [for Iran to be] trying to hurt the Saudis is something that makes sense to us as experts."

But:

I can't comment on the administration's response, but I can say that certainly with more study and more analysis they may ultimately either walk back some of what they've said or soften it, or in some ways just simply drop it. The questions I have outlined are themes being put forward by other experts who know about Iranian terrorism and really know how Iran acts and operates. ...

My peers [and I] are all sort of shaking our heads saying: This just doesn't add up to what we know about Iranian terrorism, and we think we know Iranian terrorism because we've been writing on it and watching it for a very long time.

Reuters adds:

But many outside experts, and at least some officials inside the government, remain wary, with some expressing concern that the administration of President Barack Obama is inflating the significance of a questionable plot to score political and diplomatic points against Tehran.

A former U.S. intelligence official said it was unlikely that FBI Director Robert Mueller and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would publicly tout the alleged Iranian government angle if they had qualms about the intelligence.

"There are too many people who are defending it to think it's totally bogus," a former intelligence official said.

But the official added: "I'm having a real hard time believing it is as orchestrated and centrally run as they seem to be implying. If it weren't for the fact that there were so many people standing up and publicly talking about it who ought to know, then I would be even more skeptical."