Saturday, October 22, 2011

Korea, North and South - What? Me Worry?

As in almost everything in foreign affairs, the Obama administration's take on the worsening situation on the Korean peninsula is this:


The president's position toward North Korea is the same as toward Iran: stop doing what I don't like or I will wag my finger at you! The latest example:

On October 13th, President Obama warned the DPRK, with the decisive sternness he commonly uses when dealing with dictatorial and dangerous foreign regimes. There was no suggestion of U.S. military involvement. In essence, he asked that the DPRK stop being nasty if it wants more respect, more goodies, and fewer economic sanctions from the international community — of which the United States is no longer a principal, much less the, leader under his presidency. According to the linked report:
US President Barack Obama warned North Korea . . . that it would face deeper isolation and international pressure if it carried out more “provocations” like those that rattled Asia last year. Obama, standing side-by-side with South Korean Lee President Lee Myung-Bak at the White House, said Pyongyang could however expect greater opportunities if it lived up to its international obligations over its nuclear program. The two leaders discussed North Korea in their White House talks and said they were united in their approach towards Pyongyang. “Together we’ve succeeded in changing the equation with the North by showing that its provocations will be met not with rewards but with even stronger sanctions and isolation,” Obama said. . . . . ” If the North abandons its quest for nuclear weapons and moves towards denuclearization, it will enjoy greater security and opportunity for its people.”
Which is to say, Obama said nothing.

And get a grip on that last sentence: "If the North abandons its quest for nuclear weapons and moves towards denuclearization, it will enjoy greater security and opportunity for its people.”

Is our president really that clueless? Yes:

1. The North Korean regime is entirely uninterested in "greater security and opportunity for its people." The North Korean people are slaves, literally. The only security the regime is remotely interested in is of itself. And they know that to possess nuclear weapons is their best guarantee of their own security. Mr. President: it is not the security of the people that motivates the regime. It is the security of the regime that motivates the regime.

2. That being so, you have this year provided an object lesson to the regime (and every other atomic-power tyranny) that whatever they do, they must not under any circumstances give up their nuclear weapons or ambitions. As I wrote last March,
The war against Libya has given North Korea and Iran alike every incentive to keep their nuclear programs going at high speed, or even increase the pace. If Qaddafi had maintained his nuke program, would he have had a deliverable warhead by now? We can't know for sure. But had he announced say last year that he possessed even one atomic weapon atop a medium range ballistic missile, France and Italy would never have become so bellicose toward him a month ago.
And that same week, "North Korean radio has said that the bombing of Libya proves that North Korea must never give up its nuclear weapons, as Libya did in 2003."

And this week, Mr. president, you gave them photographic proof of what their nukes ensure will not happen to them.

Remember the Iran Plot? I asked at the time, "Is Iran really this stupid?" while fearing that the answer was not about Iran's stupidity but that it has assessed this administration all too well. Michael Ledeen put it on the line:
So, to answer the often-asked question (how could the leaders of the Iranian regime have approved such a provocative action in this country?): they do not fear us, they do not believe that Obama is capable of doing anything that would threaten their grip on power, and they viewed the operation as both a provocation and a humiliation of him and his administration. So far, the pathetic lack of anything approaching a serious response – not even a hint of support for regime change in Tehran — combined with empty ritualistic incantations a la “nothing is off the table” suggest that their assessment is correct.
And that is why North Korea takes not the slightest notice of the noises coming from Washington. Odd how this administration's theme song was written in 1968:


Smile an everlasting smile, a smile can bring you near to me.
Don't ever let me find you gone, cause that would bring a tear to me.
This world has lost its glory, let's start a brand new story now, my love.
Right now, there'll be no other time and I can show you how, my love.

Talk in everlasting words, and dedicate them all to me.
And I will give you all my life, I'm here if you should call to me.
You think that I don't even mean a single word I say.
It's only words, and words are all I have, to take your heart away

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